Source: Huaqiang Microelectronics
Introduction: as the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks sharply raise interest rates, international geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the global economic recession risks are also deepening. Against this background, the global chip market is rapidly cooling down, and its cooling rate is expected to exceed previous expectations.
According to the news on August 24, in the latest report of the world semiconductor trade statistics Organization (WSTS), the growth rate of chip sales this year is expected to be reduced from 16.3% to 13.9%, and it is expected that chip sales will only increase by 4.6% in 2023, which is the lowest growth rate since 2019. In contrast, the global semiconductor chip sales growth rate in 2021 was as high as 26.2%.
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Source: WSTS
WSTS estimates that the scale of the chip market this year is 633 billion US dollars, and the demand for most types of chips is still expected to show a high year-on-year growth. Among them, the growth rate of logic chips is expected to be the strongest, 24.1%, that of analog chips is 21.9%, and that of sensors is 16.6%. Optoelectronic chips are expected to remain the category with the slowest growth rate, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be only 0.2%.
In fact, the growth of global chip sales has slowed down for six consecutive months, which is another sign of recession after the global economy bears the pressure of rising interest rates and increasing geopolitical risks.
Not long ago, according to the statistics of the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the global semiconductor chip sales in June increased by 13.3% year-on-year, lower than the 18% in May, and it has slowed down for the sixth consecutive month. This is also the longest growth slowdown since 2018.
It is worth noting that in recent decades, the three-month moving average of chip sales has become more and more closely related to the global economic performance. In addition, as the market‘s concern about economic recession has intensified recently, Samsung and other large semiconductor chip manufacturers are also considering reducing their investment plans.
Source: SIA
Therefore, as households and enterprises increasingly rely on digital devices and online services, chip sales data has become an important indicator to measure global economic activities.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast last month and said that the global economic growth in 2023 may be lower than this year. Bloomberg‘s economic model predicts that the probability of an economic recession in the United States in the next 24 months is 100%.
Therefore, while the risk of economic recession continues to intensify, WSTS expects that the growth rate of the global semiconductor market in 2023 is expected to drop to 4.6%, and the market size will reach US $662 billion. Among them, the market scale of logic chip products is expected to reach US $200 billion in 2023, accounting for about 30% of the total market.
From a regional perspective, Japan‘s chip sales growth in 2023 may be the strongest, at 5%; Followed by the Americas, with 4.8%; The growth rate of chip sales in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) is expected to be 4.7%. The growth rate of chip sales in Europe is expected to be relatively low, at 3.2%, mainly because the war between Russia and Ukraine and related sanctions have dragged down the economic growth of the European continent.
Source: WSTS
It is worth mentioning that WSTS, headquartered in California, is a non-profit organization that tracks global chip shipments. Its members include Texas Instruments, Samsung Electronics, Sony semiconductor solutions and many other semiconductor industry giants.
In general, the slowdown in the growth of the world‘s major economies, even falling into a technical recession, is an important reason for the sharp drop in the demand for semiconductor chips. Earlier, the international monetary fund still believed that the global economy would show positive growth this year. The slowdown in chip sales does not mean that an economic recession is imminent.
However, this important change is enough to make the market realize that the growth of chip sales has slowed down one after another from the chip shortage in the past to the present, which means that the prospects of products from cars to smartphones and computers are worrying.
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