Source: Network

    Nikkei Asia recently surveyed many industry analysts and reported that the oversupply of smart phone chips may not be alleviated by Q4 of 2023; The PC chip surplus is expected to reach the top in Q3, and then begin to ease; The data center chip surplus may continue to Q1. In addition, the overall chip of the automobile industry is still in shortage, and only a few products have shorter delivery time. CoreStaff, the agent of Tokyo Semiconductor, said that the car factory could not continue to produce without a single chip or component, so smart continued to keep components in stock. Among auto chips, analysts expect that power semiconductors and analog chips will continue to fall short of demand this year. Agent Macnica said that since the capital expenditure of these chips is still at a low level, the supply is unlikely to increase rapidly.

    In addition, according to the latest news of the Electronic Times, the market has successively reported that the foundry of wafer has adopted the "pre-casting" mode together with IC design manufacturers to support the growth rate. "Pre casting" means that the IC design casting quantity will be maintained at a certain scale, but it will be stored at the supply chain end in the form of wafer bank (customer consignment inventory), so that the IC design manufacturer will not bear excessive inventory pressure, and the wafer foundry can also maintain a certain yield.

    In fact, as early as the end of last year, according to industry insiders, the price of the mature manufacturing process of Q1 wafer foundry will drop by more than 10% in 2023. This price reduction will not only increase the number of manufacturers willing to reduce the price, but also change the price loosening situation of only special nodes before, and have a trend towards comprehensive price reduction. However, there is still a high inventory in the chip market to be digested. Even if the quotation is lowered, it will not be able to increase the willingness of IC design factories to increase the number of chips, resulting in the decline of both the capacity utilization rate and the quotation of the mature wafer foundry process. In the first quarter of next year, the capacity utilization rate of the mature wafer foundry process will drop to 50%, and even fall into some product line losses.

    Last week, there were also relevant reports to follow up. Analysts from foreign institutions pointed out that the quotation of wafer foundry in 2023 may fall by about 10%, and the wafer foundry manufacturer will only give discounts to some customers. In the first half of 2023, the semiconductor industry will face inventory adjustment, and the recovery in the second half will also be limited. In addition, it is estimated that the utilization rate of the world‘s advanced production capacity is about 60% to 70% in the first half of the year and is expected to rise to 80% to 90% in the second half of the year; The capacity utilization rate of Liandian will fall to 80% to 90% this year.

    Even so, the latest feedback from today‘s Electronic Times shows that recently, the market continues to report that the quotations of many foundry manufacturers have been lowered quarterly, but semiconductor manufacturers said that this is not the case. Wafer foundries all believe that the price "can‘t go back" under the significant increase of the overall cost, so the strategy of volume reduction and price stabilization will not return to the situation that the gross profit rate before the epidemic is lower than that of IC design customers. Relevant manufacturers decided to hold on to the price. After the industry recovers in the second half of 2023, the customer investment will recover, and the capacity utilization rate will rise quarter by quarter, and the performance will further grow.

    However, there is still room for negotiation between wafer foundry and IC design customers. Under the same price, each factory will give preferential treatment under the counter. For example, TSMC will rise again in 2023 against the trend, but it has provided some customer sales discounts. However, the quotation is still quite strong for customers with still strong demand and low foundry price, such as cars.