Source: Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily Author: Zheng Yuanyuan

    In the ongoing "AI craze", the large models and AI applications launched by various companies have further boosted the demand for computing power.

     According to a report by Taiwan Electronic Times today, Nvidia‘s demand for AI top specification chips for ChatGPT and related applications is significantly increasing. However, due to the need for a continuous stream of advanced packaging capacity, the company recently urgently ordered additional CoWoS advanced packaging capacity from TSMC, which is approximately 10000 more chips than originally estimated for the entire year.

    The tracking has been promised by TSMC. Due to the advanced packaging production capacity also requiring advance planning and scheduling, and currently entering the middle of the second quarter of 2023, TSMC‘s CoWoS monthly production capacity is only around 8000 to 9000 pieces. If we want to increase the supply to Nvidia within a few months, we will need to allocate an average of 1000 to 2000 pieces of CoWoS production capacity to Nvidia each month, and its CoWoS production capacity will continue to be tight.

    TSMC‘s CoWoS is part of the company‘s advanced packaging technology portfolio, 3D Fabric, which includes front-end 3D chip stacking or TSMC SoIC (system integration chip), back-end CoWoS, and InFO series packaging technologies, enabling better performance, power consumption, dimensional appearance, and functionality, achieving system level integration.

    In fact, over the past 20 years, the development speed of storage power has lagged far behind that of computing power, and the mismatch between the two has always been a major factor restricting the development of the semiconductor industry. Founder Securities pointed out that advanced packaging technologies such as wafer level packaging (WLP), three-dimensional packaging (3DP), and system level packaging (SiP) can break through memory capacity and bandwidth bottlenecks, significantly improving data transmission rates.

    According to Yole‘s data, the global advanced packaging technology market size in 2021 was $35 billion, and it is expected to reach $42 billion by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 4.66%. In terms of the number of wafers, approximately 29 million wafers used advanced packaging technology in 2019. Yole and Jiwei Consulting predict that this number will reach 43 million wafers by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 6.79%.

    CITIC Securities also believes that the demand for computing power in AI pre trained large models will drive the further development of advanced packaging technology and data center construction. Pre trained large models such as ChatGPT have a great demand for computing power, and there is an urgent need for Chiplet advanced packaging to break the limitations of Moore‘s Law and accelerate the construction of data centers.

    Furthermore, Chiplet and its 3D packaging technology will greatly accelerate the increase in transistor density per unit area to meet computing power requirements. The resulting high-throughput heat dissipation demand will drive further innovation in advanced packaging and thermal management materials. It is recommended to focus on industrial upgrading in the fields of thermal management materials and advanced packaging.