According to Gartner‘s latest forecast, the global semiconductor revenue in 2022 is expected to grow by 7.4%, which is lower than the 13.6% forecast in the previous quarter and far lower than the 26.3% in 2021.
Richard Gordon, vice president of research at Gartner, said: "Although the shortage of chips is being alleviated, the global semiconductor market is entering a weak period and will continue until the end of 2023, when the semiconductor revenue is expected to decline by 2.5%. The semiconductor terminal market has been weak, especially those affected by consumer spending. The rise in inflation, taxes and interest rates, together with the increase in energy and fuel costs, are putting pressure on consumers‘ disposable income and affecting them Spending on personal computers, smart phones and other electronic products. "
As the economic situation in the whole year will continue to deteriorate, the total global semiconductor revenue in 2022 is expected to be $639.2 billion, a decrease of $36.7 billion compared with the forecast in the previous quarter (see Table 1). The demand and price of memory have been loosened, especially in consumer related fields such as personal computers and smart phones, which further slowed down the growth.
Following the growth in 2020 and 2021, the shipment of personal computers will decrease by 13.1% in 2022. Semiconductor revenue from personal computers is estimated to decline by 5.4% in 2022. The growth rate of semiconductor revenue from smart phones will slow to 3.1% in 2022, far lower than 24.5% in 2021.
From the perspective of enterprises, inventory is rapidly recovering, delivery time is beginning to shorten and prices are weakening.
Gordon said: "the semiconductor market is entering an industry downturn cycle, which has happened many times before, so we are not unfamiliar with it. Although the consumption field will slow down, the continuous cloud infrastructure investment will keep the semiconductor income from the data center market resilient for a long time (20% growth in 2022) 。 In addition, as the automotive industry is transitioning to electric and autonomous vehicle, the semiconductor content in each vehicle will increase, so the automotive electronics industry will continue to achieve double-digit growth in the next three years. The semiconductor content of each vehicle is expected to increase from US $712 in 2022 to US $931 in 2025. "
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